SHE'S BACK. LA NINA RETURNS FOR A TRIPLE DIP
The girl child, La Nina, is back, kicking up a petulant storm or two for winter 2022 - 2023. La Nina is now starting a triple dip, a third year of influence on global weather, which is a rare occurrence, fairly fascinating for meteorologists but only interesting for skiers and snowboarders if it means a shed load of snow...
Whenever there's a La Niña or El Niño around for winter, there's always a flurry of snow forecasters, ready to give the thumbs up or down for skiing. The effect of either is quite defined for North America but definitely debatable for Europe.
SO THUMBS UP?
In brief, La Niña is a weather pattern created by cooler than normal ocean surface temperatures in the Eastern and Central Pacific Ocean, regions close to the equator off the west coast of South America, with strong winds pushing warm water towards Asia and cold water rising to the surface in the Pacific, often shoving the jet stream northward.The movement of so much heat across a quarter of the globe, and particularly in the form of temperature at the ocean surface, can have a significant effect on weather across the entire planet.
In some parts of the world, La Niña causes increased rainfall, so a boom time for umbrella sales in Australia. In other regions, it causes extreme dry conditions - and, also, increases the potential for hurricanes, hence it was batten down the hatches time in Florida.
A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the north-west and unusually dry conditions to most of the nation's southern tier, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The south-east and mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter.
SUPER-CHARGED WINTER OF SNOW
Drier? Warmer? Rainfall? None of the above are welcome news for skiers.
Fortunately, the La Niña effect can be great news for ski resorts in Northern America. During the 2010 strong La Niña episode, ski resorts across the north-west and western North America had a super-charged winter of snow.
So will this winter be a repeat performance? Here's the heads up, according to Severe Weather: 'Precipitation-wise, drier La Nina winters are usually over the south-western United States and Canada. Drier conditions are also found in the south-eastern United States, as La Nina means a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture for the east. More precipitation is typical over the north-western United States, the Great Lakes, and parts of the north-east."
SURPRISING LACK OF SNOW
The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which increases the snowfall potential if moisture is available.
The Severe Weather January 2023 snowfall forecast shows a strong pattern, with snowfall at the start of the ski season in December. But here's an anomaly in their snow prediction: "the lack of snowfall over the upper mid-west and the north-western United States is surprising in a La Nina winter".
This is, hopefully, as they say an anomaly rather than a sure-fire prediction for less snow in U.S. resorts that usually benefit from La Nina.
THE OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC 2023
So let's check for confirmation among other weather forecasters. According to theOld Farmer's Almanac 2023it's a tale of two winters in North America.
For most of the western half of the United States, the 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a coming winter they are calling, 'Wet & Mild, one with lots of (mostly) rain and temperatures that trend upward by as much as several degrees above normal. Winter temperatures will be milder than normal across eastern Maine, from the Rockies to the West Coast, and across Alaska and Hawaii".
Winter for much of the Midwest and along the East Coast is described as "Shivery & Snowy, the eastern half of the US should brace for potentially record-breaking cold to define the season. This frigid forecast extends to the Deep South and Texas, which could see the mercury diving as much as 8°F below normal".
ACROSS THE POND: SNOW FOR EUROPE
Well, much as we hate to rain on anyone's parade aka piste we have a less-than-favourable snow forecast for skiers and snowboarders heading to the Alps, this winter. In fact, look away now unless you are a complete sceptic and never believe long range snow forecasts.
It's been a mixed start across the Alps with the Northern resorts receiving a decent early base of snow while there has been more of a drought in the South. According to Severe Weather, most of Europe is forecast to have less snowfall by mid-winter, apart from some smaller areas.
Above average temperatures are also expected in most of Europe as well as in eastern and southern eastern North America.
WEAK SNOWFALL CONFIRMATION
Severe Weather also checked out UKMO for their long range forecast, confirming a weak snowfall forecast in Europe identical to the ECMWF.
Actually, if we're using La Nina as an influencer for snow in Europe, then we only have to look back at the past two winters, both below average and both under the influence of the La Nina weather patterns. So it figures that this winter will be ditto.
This is not only bad news for skiers and snowboarders, this ski season, but also for the future. After the scorching hot summer of 2022, many glaciers are hanging by an icy thread. What the European mountains badly need is precipitation, even if it's rain on the lower slopes, then at least it'll be snow on the peaks and glaciers.
Of course, without precipitation the water reserves in ski resorts are, also, depleted, which, along with the rising costs of fuel, will make artificial snow making a no-go, even if it were cold enough for the snow cannons. This is a double whammy blow for ski resorts and skiers if there is a lack of actual snow at lower altitudes and reduced means to create snow artificially.
THE SEVEN YEAR SWITCH
There is a saying among mountain guides in the Alps that epic snowfall winters occur every seven years. This would mean, that following 2018's impressive amounts of snow, specifically in early March with the powder feast from the East (image above taken on 1st March in Serre Chevalier), we have another two seasons to wait.
Significantly - or not - there was a weak-to-moderate La Niña that developed in the fall of 2017 but from the beginning in February, many of the atmospheric indicators of La Niña returned to an ENSO-neutral condition with a weak El Nino developing late 2018.
LA NINA FACTS AND SNOW FIGURES
As we've said before in our snow forecasts, the effect of La Niña is far less predictable for European weather, with no guarantees of more or less snowfall. In fact, we've compared historical snowfalls with La Niña activity before and found that amounts of snow recorded bears little or no relationship(see graphs below).
These graphs fromfranceinfocompiled from 1st December to 30th April since 1960 of days with snow cover greater than 50cms in the French Southern and greater than one metre in the Northern Alps recorded at a height of 1800m. Notably there is more of a downward trend in the Northern Alps since the end of the 80s.
And here is a table fromggweathershowing the years that El Nino and La Nina featured whether weak, moderate, strong or very strong since 1952:
A scan of the figures comparing high snowfall with El Nino and La Nina activity reveals that very few years coincide. During the seven best years in the Northern Alps with over 150 days of more than one metre, 1963 had a mild El Nino, 1975 a strong La Nina, 1977 a weak El Nino and in 1982 there was a very strong El Nino. For the three best snow years in the Southern Alps with more than 150 days of over 50cms, only 1977 was affected by a weak El Nino.
And that really highlights the fact that epic snow in the French Alps, whether North or South, does not have any regular identifiable correlation to La Nina or El Nino activity - whether weak, moderate or strong - except on an extremely random basis.
FAQs
Winter Ski Season Weather Forecast 2022 - 2023? ›
Winter temperatures will be below normal, with the coldest periods in early December, early and late January, and mid-February. Precipitation will be below normal. Snowfall will be above normal in the east and below normal in the west, with the best chances for snow in early and late January and mid-February.
Will Colorado have a snowy winter in 2022 in 2023? ›A strong winter storm will result in another prolonged period of unsettled weather to end 2022 and begin 2023. Moderate to heavy snow is expected for the mountains of eastern Utah and western Colorado as well as some adjacent valleys through Monday.
What are the predictions for Colorado winter 2022-2023? ›Colorado could be in for a snowy and cold ride. The Almanac puts Colorado in its "hibernation zone" that'll be both "glacial" and "snow-filled." The North Central States are forecast to experience extremely cold temperatures, especially during mid-January, according to the Farmers' Almanac.
How many inches of snow are they predicting will fall in the 2022-2023 winter in nyc? ›AccuWeather is predicting 18 to 23 inches of snow will fall in New York City this season, below the normal of 29.8 inches.
What is the winter forecast for Louisiana? ›Annual Weather Summary
Winter will be colder than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early to mid-January, and mid- to late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above average in the east and below average in the west.
Recent data show a snowy start to 2023 for the Colorado River basin, with heavy winter precipitation in the Rocky Mountains projected to boost spring spring runoff into Lake Powell to 117% of an average year's flows.
What type of winter we are expecting in 2023? ›The 2022-2023 General Winter Forecast. For Winter 2023, most of the U.S. will be colder than normal this winter, although Summer 2023 will be mostly warmer than usual.
Will it snow in Colorado in January 2023? ›The month is usually the sixth snowiest month of the year because sunny, dry and chilly days usually dominate most of the month. January 2023 was quite different with at least a trace of snow reported 15 of the 31 days. The biggest snow was from the storm that brought 9.2 inches of heavy, wet snow on January 17-18.
What will Colorado inflation rate be in 2023? ›The inflation rate for the Denver region is projected to be 4.3% in 2023, down from the projection of 4.5% reported last quarter. Per capita personal income in Colorado increased 7.9% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2022, the highest increase in the nation, according to the report.
What is Colorado economic outlook for 2023? ›Farmers in Colorado may see record revenues in 2023 but net income will likely decline, according to the Business Economic Outlook report. That's because expenses are increasing faster than revenues. Net farm income in 2022 dropped by nearly $1 billion — to $852 million — and may fall to $772 million in 2023.
What is the winter prediction for NYC 2023? ›
NYC Winter Forecast 2022-2023: Colder start, active and warmer finish Highlights: The Winter of 2022-2023 is likely to begin with a somewhat cool, wintry pattern during the months of December and January. The second half of the winter will trend more volatile and could end warmer than normal in February.
What is the winter prediction for New York in 2023? ›Average temperatures for the span are expected to be pushed higher by an especially warm start to January, which is shaping up to be atypically balmy. The predictions do not rule out cold snaps and even extended periods with temperatures just below typical levels, only overall temperatures over the three-month period.
Will there be an El Niño in 2023? ›Starting in the May to July 2023 period, the probability of El Niño rises to 90%. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) markedly boosted the odds that an El Niño event will form in the tropical Pacific Ocean this summer, hastening climate change and altering global weather patterns.
Will it snow in Louisiana this year 2023? ›November 2022 to October 2023. Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early December and early and late January. Precipitation will be below normal, with above-normal snowfall in the north.
When was the last time Louisiana had snow? ›2021: Significant snow and ice was reported nearly statewide on February 14–15, 2021 with the February 13–17, 2021 North American winter storm and again on February 17 from the February 15–20, 2021 North American winter storm.
Does Louisiana get a lot of snow? ›While Louisiana is far less likely to have heavy snow and ice accumulation than most other states in the United States, winter storms or conditions of ice, snow, or dangerous wind-chill factors occur at least once a year.
Will 2023 be the warmest year? ›We estimate that there is currently a modest chance (roughly 22%) that 2023 will end up exceeding 2016 as the warmest year on record (though if El Niño conditions continue to develop it is increasingly likely that 2024 will set a new record).
What will happen to the climate in 2023? ›BRUSSELS, April 20 (Reuters) - The world could breach a new average temperature record in 2023 or 2024, fuelled by climate change and the anticipated return of the El Nino weather phenomenon, climate scientists say.
Will Denver have a snowy winter? ›Annual Weather Summary
Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, mid- to late January, and early February. April and May will be warmer than normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation.
What's coming in 2023 according to Old Moore's Almanac? An Atlantic event to affect the west coast of Ireland and the coastline of other countries. A recession and also a 'great reset' of the financial system. Submarine drama.
Why is it so warm in January 2023? ›
Throughout most of January, the subtropical jet has been pushed warmth and moisture to the United States, bringing record rainfall and snow to the west coast -- particularly California -- while sending the remains of those systems north into Canada.
Is Colorado going to have an early winter? ›November 2022 to October 2023. Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early and late January, and early and late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south.
What is the weather like in Denver on January 23 2023? ›Little to no accumulation expected. Highs in the lower 30s on the Plains and middle 20s in the Foothills.
What is the weather like in Denver in the winter 2023? ›January 2023 had an average monthly temperature of 25.2 degrees, ending as the 18th coldest on record. The coldest January ever recorded in Denver was back in 1930 with an average temperature of 16.9 degrees.
Will food prices go down in 2023? ›Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical-average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.9 to 7.5 percent.
What is the monthly inflation forecast for 2023? ›In all scenarios, there is a rapid fall in inflation from February 2023, which is due to the drop out of the high inflation figures in the corresponding months this year. However, inflation will remain well above 2% for the whole of 2023.
Will inflation ever go down 2023? ›The current trend is certainly positive, and experts generally agree that inflation is headed to a more favorable place — at some point in the relatively near future. Ben Johnson, Chief Operating Officer of Kapitus, says, “We expect inflation to remain above the Fed's 2% target rate throughout 2023…
Is Colorado headed for a recession? ›April 26, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. Colorado's economy is still growing, but it is losing momentum, leaving it vulnerable to outside shocks and a recession later this year, according to the latest ColoradoCast from Colorado State University.
What is the latest economic forecast for 2023? ›Overall, investment growth is projected to decelerate markedly from 4% in 2022 to 0.9% in 2023. Gradual normalisation of economic activity is expected to reinvigorate companies' investment decisions, pushing overall investment growth up by 2.1% in 2024.
Will the US economy recover in 2023? ›Outlook Across Key Economic Metrics. The speed and the extent to which inflation returns to pre-2021 levels depend on a number of key factors. In all scenarios, we expect to see a material softening of inflation in 2023, returning to target inflation levels of 2% by 2024 in the case of a 'soft landing.
Is it going to snow in New York 2023? ›
According to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok, more significant snowfall chances are more likely later in January and again toward late winter. “This time of year is going to be so much more warmer and milder than what we would typically expect,” Stark said.
Will it snow in New York in January 2023? ›SYRACUSE, NY (WSYR-TV) – Whether you are a snow lover/winter enthusiast or snow hater, January 2023 was a memorable one across CNY! For snow haters you were loving it, while snow lovers were wallowing in disbelief of yet another warm, and almost snowless January in CNY.
Are New York winters getting warmer? ›Climate change is warming the air, making it more likely that precipitation falls as rain. New York's 30-year winter temperature average has increased by a full degree in the past decade.
What will New York be like in 2050? ›There will be less shivering agony on train platforms, plus less salting and shoveling. But the summers will be harsher—half a dozen heat waves instead of the usual two, and those heat waves will be even longer and more sweltering than usual; there will be twice as many plus-90-degree days as there once were.
What kind of winter is predicted for New York? ›Annual Weather Summary
Winter temperatures will be below normal, while precipitation and snowfall will be above normal.
By the 2050s, New York City will be hotter than ever before. Average temperatures are expected to increase by up to 5.7 degrees Fahrenheit, and as many as 1,500 people may die each summer from intense heat — almost five times more than today.
Does El Niño mean more snow? ›In general, El Niño conditions lead to wetter, snowier conditions in Amarillo and cooler maximum temperatures during the winter. La Niña conditions lead to drier and warmer temperatures overall, with notable extreme cold spells. In stronger El Niño or La Niña episodes, these trends are even greater.
Will 2024 be an El Niño year? ›Forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization are reporting increased chances that the global climate pattern known as El Niño will arrive by the end of summer. With it comes increased chances for hotter-than-normal temperatures in 2024.
Is El Niño every 7 years? ›El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, on average, but they don't occur on a regular schedule. Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
Will 2022 be a snowy winter in Colorado? ›November 2022 to October 2023. Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early and late January, and early and late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south.
Is 2022 2023 winter going to be bad Denver? ›
There is an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the winter season and an increased chance of below-normal precipitation. Perreault said that temperature, mountain snow, and precipitation is forecast to be above normal. Cold temperatures will pop up in mid-November, mid-January, and early February.
What is the runoff forecast for 2023 in Colorado? ›And we've just begun this exciting process for 2023. For the first time in a number of years, the streamflow runoff forecast is 100% of median or more in nearly all basins! This is especially good news for the Southwest part of the state which is seeing record amounts of snow after several very dry years.
Are Colorado winters getting warmer? ›DENVER — Winter in the United States is getting warmer. The data shows that every region from the Rocky Mountains to the east coast has warmed by an average of 1 to 4 degrees since 1970. But part of Colorado is showing the least amount of winter change. Along with a few regions in the Pacific Northwest.
How much snow in Denver 2022 2023? ›| Boulder | Denver |
|---|---|
| 80.8" | 48.7" |
The location and strength of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex on January 4, 11, 18, and 25, and February 1, 8, and 15, 2023. A disruption caused the vortex to shift southward from the pole toward Europe. Lower heights indicate low pressure (and colder temperatures).
Will 2023 be a hotter year? ›The record for Earth's hottest year was set in 2016. There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed that, the forecasters said, while the average from 2023 to '27 will almost certainly be the warmest for a five-year period ever recorded.
Is 2023 the coldest year? ›In addition to becoming Earth's coldest temperature recorded in 2023, the all-time station record was broken in Tongulakh.